Posted on 17 August 2010
We all know that sinking feeling. You’ve picked up Jacks, Queens or Kings… Raised and been called and the first card in the window is an over card. Well don’t dispair, just because there’s a ace on the board or may be even two overs all is not lost. That over card may be just as much of a scare card for your opponent as it is for you.
Consider these two situations. First the worst case scenario you’re in the big blind, Blinds are 50, 100, everyone has around 50 BBs, you pick up Jacks. There’s a mid position limper, then another limp from the cut off, and another from the button. The Small blind folds. You raise to 550, the mid position limper calls, the late position muppets get out of the way. The flop comes Kh, Tc, 3h. Now out of position you may think you’re in bad shape here. The limper has a range that could include many hands that have connected with this flop. Quite a few of them have you crushed and so many peoples first instinct here is to check. Although this is a line you could take consider this. The board is very draw heavy and he may be holding hands like QJ, AXh… Releasing control of the hand may not be the best idea here. Yes he may also have KJ, KQ or KT but these only make up a small percentage of his range. In reality it is likely to include AT, QT, JT, 9T and any pair up to 9s. I like a bet here and I like the idea of making it small to induce one of these weaker hands (or air) to bluff.
When in position it’s even less scary. Say you raise QQ from the cutoff with effective stacks of 20 big blinds and the big blind flat-calls. The flop is A,8,3 rainbow – a very dry board. Here the Ace is far more likely to have connected with your hand than your opponent’s, as it’s almost certain that he’d have reraised out of position preflop with a big Ace like AK and AQ and probably with A-J and A-T too. There is a chance your opponent decided to flat-call with a hand such as A9 or A8 suited, but that makes up a far smaller part of his range than Broadway hands such as KJ or KQ (remembering that you’re holding two Queens) and pocket pairs and suited connectors. So here your Queens are likely the best hand. If you believe the player is someone who will consider a check a sign of weakness, you could exploit his tendencies by giving him a free card. The only card you really don’t want to see on the turn is a King and that’s a fairly slim possibility.
I guess this whole piece is simply about adjusting your attitude. If like me you used to be one of those “Find a dark cloud in every silver flop” kind of guys then the lesson here is often a less than ideal board can work out just fine.
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